Halpern: How Islamic terrorists see things

I'm thinking

by Micah D. Halpern

Issue of January 8 2010/ 22 Tevet 5770

Among the most pressing questions plaguing the intelligence community as we enter the year 2010 is this: How it is possible that intelligence agencies can so consistently miss essential red flags waving in the wind? Why is it that the intelligence community is still so misinformed about the world of terror?

Failures by people who are supposed to be protecting us instead endanger our lives and the world in which we live.

In a piece that ran in their Week in Review section, The New York Times suggested that the disconnect between intelligence agencies is systemic - a word that President Obama seems to favor quite a bit. The Times wrote that by definition, from the outset, intelligence agencies were created in a way that made it impossible for them to share, to properly interpret events as they unfolded and as a result to predict future occurrences and reaction.

That was true in the ‘60s, but in 2010 we are facing another dilemma. The reason for the abysmal failures we have been witness to has more to do with a profound ignorance of the world than an inability to share insights.

The Western world is ignorant about the world of Islam and the world of Islamic terrorists. Leaders, agency heads and operatives can only see and understand the world through their own eyes - Islam sees the world differently.

One of the most looming failures of current thinkers to adequately assess the probability of terror lies in their continued obsession with Game Theory Analysis. The most famous example of Game Theory is the idea of Win-Win. The optimal scenario is one in which all sides win — all winners, no losers.

The fundamental problem with that concept is that for the Islamic terrorist there is no such thing as a Win-Win. On the contrary, the exclusive paradigm for the Islamic terrorists is Win-Lose. They win, we lose. Always.

It is an idea that goes against almost every Western intellectual predisposition, and yet, it is the code by which Islamic terrorists live. According to terrorist logic, they are successful even when they fail. Members of the political and intelligence community are incapable of making this connection. That means that the West can never defeat the terrorist. A good example of this lopsided logic is the way in which the world of Islam interprets Israel’s actions in Gaza and earlier in Lebanon.

Despite overwhelming military defeat by Israel, because certain Islamic leaders remained standing at the end of the operations, the message delivered to Islamic followers was that victory was theirs. In the world of the Islamic terrorist, the battle, literally, ends only when there is just one man standing. The rule holds true for Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon just as it holds true in Afghanistan and in Iraq.

The world will not be wiped out, even with nuclear weaponry. All terrorism will never be eliminated, no matter how good our intel and ability to predict finally becomes. And so, the terrorists will continue to claim victory and deliver their messages of support to fellow terrorists.

Until the West realizes that terrorists will never lay down their proverbial swords, that they will never say “uncle,” that in their world the lion never lays down with the lamb, that they are not Western thinkers, the West will never successfully fight terror.

We need a good offense; not just a good defense. Forget about winning.

Micah D. Halpern is a columnist and a social and political commentator. Read his latest book THUGS. He maintains The Micah Report at www.micahhalpern.com