Opinion: Answering your political questions, but asking others

By Michael Fragin

Politics is a cyclical business. Five short years ago, in 2004, Karl Rove spoke of a realignment in American politics in which he envisioned Republicans winning a permanent majority. Within one election cycle, in 2006, the GOP was swept from the majority in both houses of Congress and then from the White House in 2008, coupled with a loss of even more House and Senate seats.

The nation realigned in four years, but not in the way that Rove had predicted.

The polls had hardly closed last week when the conventional wisdom was pointing to the 2009 off-year elections as the harbinger of a GOP resurgence and the rejection of President Obama.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Yes, Tuesday did provide some big and much-needed wins for the Republicans. Talk of Virginia as a purple state ceased as the Republicans swept all the statewide offices by convincing margins. In New Jersey, a race that was supposed to be too close to call was, in the end, not even close. Even after a significant downward slide in the polls Chris Christie is the new governor, pretty much because he’s not Jon Corzine, who is deeply unpopular. Interestingly, Corzine ran after President Obama while Democrat Creigh Deeds in Virginia ran away from the president. Virginia was probably more of a referendum on the Obama administration than New Jersey, however. The Garden State suffers from deep, structural fiscal problems that even a former CEO of Goldman Sachs couldn’t tackle.

In New York, where Republicans of late have veered close to political oblivion, GOP wins in county races may point to political progress. Republicans lost the State Senate last year and now hold just two congressional seats, down from thirteen a decade ago; the party has recently been known for fighting itself instead of winning elections. This year, while a Democrat won a special congressional election in the North Country, the GOP gained the Nassau County Legislature as well as the legislatures in Duchess, Ulster and Orange counties in the Hudson Valley. The GOP also scored victories in Monroe, Erie and Onondaga counties.

Some lessons from 2009

In times of economic stress voters care about taxes, taxes, and taxes, in that order. Republicans throughout the northeast have agonized over whether to nominate candidates who are conservative on social issues for fear of not being able to attract Democrats and independent voters. Rob Astorino, solidly pro-life, won the Westchester county executive race decisively over three-term incumbent Andy Spano by hammering away at high suburban taxes. Here in the Five Towns, Howard Kopel bludgeoned incumbent Jeff Toback with at least a dozen direct mail pieces holding Toback responsible for tax increases. In both cases the challenger won by at least a ten-point margin.

Sometimes name recognition isn’t everything

At press time, Tom Suozzi, with his outsize personality and swollen campaign war chest, was leading his largely unknown Republican challenger, Ed Mangano, by 237 votes out of 245,000 cast. Approximately 8,000 paper ballots remain to be counted and political insiders are saying that there may be a substantial enough enrollment edge in those ballots to tip the race to the Republican. Even worse for Suozzi is that had he not engineered the run of Steven Hansen, a Nassau County employee, on the Conservative line, he would have lost the race on election night by almost 10,000 votes.

Voters who are angry and resentful are more likely to go the polls.

Right now it is Republicans and many independents who are upset with the direction the country is taking. Couple that trend with the fact that many voters who were engaged in 2008 largely because of Barack Obama’s charisma are not coming to the polls anymore, and Democrats have a reason to worry.

Suburban voters continue to be the key to electoral success in statewide races.

This has led to a tide of Democratic victories in populous counties around major cities. Over the past decade we have seen a Democrat enrollment surge in once solidly red Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, and Rockland. The current recession has hit the suburban voter hard while the tax burden shows no sign of easing. This mixture is toxic for the party in power unless they can offer relief.

Some questions for 2010

• Are all incumbents vulnerable or just the party in power, during a time of ten percent unemployment?
• With polls showing that most voters are concerned with record deficit spending, will House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senator Majority Leader Harry Reid (who faces a very angry Nevada electorate next year) continue to overreach on healthcare and social entitlements?
• With Albany more dysfunctional than ever, and the state’s financial predicament more severe, will anyone be able to right the ship or will our elected officials continue to make things worse?
• Will newly empowered and emboldened Republicans make real efforts to reform government that most voters view as broken and inefficient?
• And when will David Paterson figure out what everyone else seems to know?

One thing is for sure. The results of the 2009 elections are sure to make 2010 more interesting.