The New Coalition Will Change Israeli Politics Forever

The first weekend in May, we learned that early Israeli elections were scheduled for September 4th. Those elections were cancelled last week, with the stunning announcement that Prime Minister Netanyahu and the head of the leading opposition party, Kadima, reached an agreement to bring the party into the government, forestalling an election till the official end of its term on October 22, 2013.

The inclusion of Kadima, the party formed by former Prime Minster Ariel Sharon, brings the ruling coalition to 94 seats, almost 80% of the 120-seat Knesset and the largest coalition in the 64-year history of the modern State of Israel.

If you were to believe the mainstream media, the agreement has given Bibi Netanyahu royal powers so he can sabotage any possible peace agreement and bomb Iran into submission. Nonsense! The reason for the deal has nothing to do with foreign relations and everything to do with internal Israeli issues. As a result of the deal, there may be significant changes to the Israeli political system that will long outlive this coalition.

Israel has no constitution (they tried for two years and couldn’t come up with an agreement). They have Basic Laws dealing with the formation and role of governmental institutions and civil rights. Therefore, to make changes in the system, all that is needed is a new law. The basic law regarding the government was passed in 1968, changed in 1991 and then changed back in 2001.

Israel’s political system is great because of its inclusiveness. The 120 seats in the Knesset are handed out proportionally to each party that receives at least 2% of the vote. The lousy thing about the Israeli political system is its inclusiveness---there are thirteen different parties in the Knesset today.

There has never been a majority government in the Israeli Knesset; as a result the lead party has to make concessions to tiny parties in order to build at least 61 seats for a ruling coalition. Many of these small parties concentrate on a single-issue and have brought down coalitions because the government has strayed from their particular issue. This slows down the ability of any government to do what is necessary to move the country ahead on domestic issues.

A coalition the size of this new government will have the political legitimacy to change the Basic Law. Indeed, that is one of the stated goals of the new government. Israel will never trim down to a two party system like the U.S., but there will be fewer than thirteen parties in the Knesset and/or the vote for Prime Minister will be separated from the vote for the legislature as it was from 1991-2001.

What created the need for elections or a new coalition was a no confidence vote caused by the Tal Law, which allows Haredim (commonly described as Ultra-Orthodox) to permanently defer military service.

The law expires in August and the negotiations to replace it have been very contentious. The religious parties want the law renewed as is, and the more secular parties want it changed or eliminated completely. With the large coalition’s backing a new law can be negotiated making both sides happy (or happier).

Under the coalition agreement, Kadima Chair Shaul Mofaz becomes Deputy Prime Minister, standing in for Netanyahu when he is abroad and joining all closed sessions of the cabinet that “deal with security, diplomatic, economic and social issues.”

The new coalition has announced four priorities:

The first priority will be “replacing the Tal Law with a historic, just and equal solution” to integrating the Haredim into army service (but not necessarily as soldiers).

The second is to develop a “responsible budget addressing security, economic and social issues.”

The third is “changing the structure of government” so that governments serving out their terms will be “the rule and not the exception.”

The fourth is to “move forward responsibly in the peace process.”

A claim by the religious parties is that the new coalition and changes to the electoral system will diminish or even end their voice in Israeli politics, and they may be right, but only if they don’t learn to work together. Today, there are three religious parties in the Knesset with a total of 19 seats (Shas being the largest with 11). Look for the religious parties to find a way to consolidate to maintain and even increase their influence.

What will be the effect of the new coalition on the peace process? Not much. If a deal is negotiated by this government it will be much easier to pass it through the Knesset. But it still takes two to Tango, and all parties in this government understand the Palestinian Authority has shown no interest in dancing.

All the major parties are pretty close on how to negotiate with the Palestinians and the importance of security, so don’t expect changes in position.

The most pressing security issue in Israel is Iran. Here, too, there is little difference between the major parties. While some people believe that a broader coalition may make Israel more likely to attack Iran, I believe it makes it less likely (even before the coalition an attack right now was very unlikely).

Kadima head Shaul Mofaz becomes the third former IDF Chief of Staff to join Netanyahu’s inner cabinet (the other two are Moshe Ya’alon and Defense Minister Ehud Barak).

Military leaders such as Ya’alon, Barack and Mofaz understand the horrors of war and will not support an attack without a total understanding of the consequences. If an attack will create only a six to twelve month delay in Iranian nuclear capability, these former chiefs will argue against any order. And because of their military backgrounds, they will be less likely to be swayed by political pressure for or against an attack.

In the end, the political shocker announced by Bibi Netanyahu and Shaul Mofaz last week will change Israeli politics forever.

It will result in stronger coalitions with greater legitimacy to deal with the major problems of the day, and unity on security issues that will allow the Jewish State to stand up to unfair pressure should Barack Obama be re-elected. Israel will still have a broad base of political parties in the Knesset, but governments will move ahead less encumbered by small and sometimes single-issue parties.

The coalition and the electoral changes it is sure to bring will make for a stronger Israel in the long run.

Jeff Dunetz is the Editor/Publisher of the political blog “The Lid” (www.jeffdunetz.com). Jeff contributes to some of the largest political sites on the Internet. Jeff lives on Long Island.