Politico to go: Special election looks like a photo-finish

When Anthony Weiner resigned from Congress, it was assumed that whoever got the Democratic Party nomination would win the race to replace him. But you cannot assume when it comes to special elections, remember in 2009 when Ted Kennedy was replaced by a Republican?
The special election for New York’s Ninth Congressional District is also a strange one. With the vote just a few days away, on Sept. 13, the race between Democrat David Weprin and Republican Bob Turner is a toss-up and independents are breaking toward Turner, according to an internal Turner poll. That same study showed Turner down by eight in July.
This district, which spans across southern Brooklyn and central Queens is seen as a Democratic leaning district by non-partisan pundits as Democrat +5, which means that a generic Democrat would have a five point advantage over a generic Republican. The last time a Republican won the seat was in the 1920 election. On top of the district leanings, Weprin has raised more than twice the money with $450,000 topping Turner’s $204,000. The bottom-line is this election that should not even be close; Weiner’s lowest winning total was 61 percent of the vote. What exactly is going on?
There are three reasons this election is close.
Firstly, Bob Turner has more name recognition than the typical opposition party candidate. Bob Turner ran against Weiner in last November’s race, cutting Weiner’s once formidable reelection results down to a more competitive margin. This election is almost an extension of the one that took place only eleven months ago, placing Turner far ahead of where most opposition party candidates begin.
The next reason is former New York City mayor Ed Koch. The Ninth District has a large Jewish community, well actually two Jewish communities. You have the Queens part of the district where the Jews are very liberal, and you have the smaller Brooklyn part of the district, where the Jews tend to be more Orthodox and thus conservative.