Iran’s nuclear program: We only have ourselves to blame

One of the most irritating aspects of the international efforts to deal with Iran’s nuclear program lies in the unrealistic expectations that negotiations create, even among those—like the American Jewish advocacy groups who met with the White House Oct. 29 to discuss the nuclear issue—who have every reason to be cynical.

From Nov. 7-8, members of the so-called P5+1, which comprises the five members of the U.N. Security Council along with Germany, will meet with representatives of the Iranian regime in Geneva. These talks follow from preliminary discussions whose content has not been revealed, yet we are assured that they were “very intensive and very important” (Catherine Ashton, EU Foreign Policy Chief), and that the Iranians brought with them a proposal “with a level of seriousness and substance that we had not seen before” (Jay Carney, White House spokesman).

Hence, the sense we are getting is that one of the most intractable problems facing the Middle East is on the cusp of being resolved.

That’s why I’m going to break ranks by issuing a spoiler alert. These talks aren’t going to lead to a deal. Instead, they will function as they have always done, by allowing the Iranians to buy time, safe in the knowledge that the other options we are told are always on the table—from tighter sanctions to pre-emptive military action—are on the back-burner for now.

There are three main reasons behind my assertion. Firstly, the P5+1 cannot for a moment pretend to represent an international consensus. On the inside, you have the Russians and the Chinese, who have consistently backed Iran during the nuclear dispute of the last decade. And on the outside, you have Israel and the conservative Arab states, whose trust in the Obama Administration when it comes to Iran is close to evaporating, and who thus may well reject any agreement framework.

Secondly, all the attention paid to the apparently constructive atmosphere at the preliminary discussions, along with the public relations offensive unleashed by Iran’s new president, Hasan Rouhani, cannot camouflage some very basic facts. For example, if Rouhani really does want to reach a deal, how come he won’t he explain why Iran’s nuclear program was, from the beginning, a clandestine enterprise? The answer is simple: he is faithfully parroting the mullahs line that Iran’s intentions were always peaceful, that the regime never intended to build nuclear weapons, and that anyone who thinks otherwise has fallen victim to an Israeli plot that seeks, in Rouhani’s own words, “to divert international attention not only from its own clandestine and dangerous nuclear weapons program, but also from its destabilizing and inhuman policies and practices in Palestine and the Middle East.”