politics to go: jeff dunetz

Exit clause lets Iran take the money and run

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Despite what Secretary of State Kerry says, the P5+1 deal is not forever (most key provisions stopping Iran from enriching uranium expire after 10 years, the rest after 15). But if you read the entire 159 page agreement (and I recommend you do), according to Paragraph 36 on page 19, any party — be it the Supreme Leader of Iran, the Prime Minister of Great Britain, or a future U.S. president — any party — can kill the Iran nuclear deal with 35 days’ notice.

Iran might need to wait a little longer (an extra 30) working days because of a sentence in Annex IV.  But, after that, under Paragraph 36, Iran can claim that any of the P5+1 is “not meeting its commitments” under the agreement. That triggers a 35-day set of meetings. Once that clock runs, Iran can claim the issue “has not been resolved to [its] satisfaction” and that it “deems” that the issue “constitutes significant non-performance.” Iran can then “cease performing its commitments under this JCPOA in whole or in part.” The agreement is done.

On the other hand, once Iran has its $150 billion (okay Kerry says it’s only $100 billion) and made some long term oil deals they can give the nuclear agreement the big heave ho and just take the money and run.

Iran has already made a claim that the U.S. is in “material breach” of the understandings. The letter, posted on the IAEA’s website, cites July 17 statements from White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest as the source of the complaint.

Trying to sell the deal, Earnest made the ridiculous claim that the military option was still on the table and followed up with a hypothetical: “So when it comes to the targeting decisions that would be made by military officials either in Israel or the United States, those targeting decisions would be significantly informed, and our capabilities improved, based on the knowledge that has been gained in the intervening years through this inspections regime.”

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