Election prognosticator: Who’ll win Senate

In the Senate today, Democrats (including independents who caucus with Democrats) have 55 seats. The GOP needs to pick up a net of six seats to take over. Should they pick up only five, resulting in a 50-50 tie, the Senate would remain in Democratic hands because per the Constitution, the Vice President casts the deciding vote.

Based on an analysis of each of the races, plus some national data, if trends continue, the Republican Party will net at least the six seats it needs to take control of the Senate.

The Democratic Party faces an almost insurmountable task. Firstly, most of the elections are for Democratic seats. Out of the 36 Senate seats to be decided, 21 of those now held by Democrats, and 15 by Republicans. On top of that, many of the Democratic seats up for grabs are in states that voted against President Obama in 2012. If that wasn’t enough, the president’s approval ratings are very low and right or wrong, issues such as ISIS and Ebola continue to make most of the Senate elections about President Obama.

Although there are 36 seats up for grabs, 13 of those races will determine control of the Senate. Ten of those seats are currently held by Democrats, three by Republicans.

In three Senate seats currently held by Democrats retiring this year, the Republicans have impressive leads and barring major disasters will flip to the GOP. In Montana, Republican Steve Danes leads by 18%, South Dakota shows Republican Mike Rounds with a 10% advantage, and the lead of Shelley Moore Capito, the Republican in West Virginia, is almost 17%.

Alaska: The seat currently held by Democrat Mark Begich will switch back to the GOP. Generally the polls show Republican Dan Sullivan with a small lead of 4 to 5% that has been increasing over the past six weeks.