Anatomy of a ceasefire

After at least 11 failed attempts at achieving a lasting ceasefire between the Hamas terrorist group and Israel, negotiators in Cairo on Tuesday announced that they reached an indefinite ceasefire deal. But will the agreement, whose parameters are not yet fully apparent, hold up this time around? Some experts are skeptical because the talks leading up to the deal lacked the three major elements they believe are required for a successful cease-fire: negative leverage, positive leverage, and a credible third-party broker.

Before Tuesday, a delegation of Israeli officials had shuttled between Israel and Egypt for weeks to participate in indirect talks with Palestinian Authority officials representing Fatah, Hamas, and the Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, with minimal success. Israel believed Hamas’s demands were unrealistic. But according to observers, both sides will need to go through a process that will necessitate gains and losses.

“If you reach an agreement based on quiet-for-quiet, it is bound to be short-lived, because what concerns the people of the Strip and Hamas is that there is a blockade,” said Shlomo Ben-Ami, Israel’s former minister of internal security, minister of foreign affairs, and ambassador to Spain.

But according to the Middle East Media Research Institute, Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri said this week that “it is not only the blockade which is rejected by our people. Our people refuses to accept the defiling of the land by the occupier (Israel).”

Hamas target: Jerusalem

“The time has come for us to say that the true war is not aimed at opening border crossings,” added Abu Zuhri. “Our true war is aimed at the liberation of Jerusalem, Allah willing.”

Israel has previously accepted quiet-for-quiet cease-fires, in which both sides agreed to end hostilities and default to the status quo without resolving any of the larger, underlying causes of the conflict. It is a strategy Israelis have favored, even if it leaves open the possibility of future hostilities.